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more geopolitics commentary
Jun. 26th, 2003 12:12 pmwith the goodwill $3billion package from Washington, Pakistan is getting back only 30% of the losses it has suffered as a result of offering its land, facilities, and other logistic support to the coalition. not bad for a country whose national debt is nearing $40 billion.
but the Pakistani general/president Musharraf has met with success in negotiating more generous loan payment schedules. probably because creditor countries such as the US and Japan know that the population of Pakistan (146 m, growth rate 2%) represents a very significant export market for their industry. compared to the income this can potentially generate, a few billions now are just pocket change, a minor setback.
this is certainly not the only reason Pakistan is given more leeway now, as its location is key to any successful administration of Afghanistan. plus there is the risk of another war with fellow nuclear club member India over Kashmir. plus the jihadi Taliban-friendly organizations having retreated to the Afghani border could be staging a guerilla campaign under the leadership of mulla Omar.
meanwhile, the pressure on Iran and North Korea continues, with focus on stopping their nuclear proliferation. surprisingly, the EU joined the US in their cease and desist demand for North Korea's nuclear program. the country having one of the world's largest troop numbers in a standing, conventional army, it's easy to imagine how powerful Kim&Co. would feel once they'd have the Bomb. and then anything could happen.
the bad-mouthing of Syria seems to be over for now, although rumors abound that Saddam&Sons have fled there with many members of the administration. all the same,
I HEREBY PREDICT that within a year we will see another attempt at launching a war.
against one of the states mentioned above, in all probability. the continued PR campaigns and verbal attacks suggest that Pentagon are already drawing up new battle charts, the way they did last summer, according to Clare Short. the ease with which the EU joined US in the North Korea ban also implies that the atmosphere in the Old World is more positive towards the War on Terror now than it was this winter. Wolfowitz' new defense strategy focussing on "uncertainty and surprise" makes it all the simpler.
and by next year, people will have forgotten the allegations of false intelligence reports and lack of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. and most importantly: Bush needs a new war to win the election next year, otherwise too much public attention to his domestic politics will become his doom, regardless of his multi-million head start on the Democrat candidate in campaign fundraising.
I think it runs in the family.
but the Pakistani general/president Musharraf has met with success in negotiating more generous loan payment schedules. probably because creditor countries such as the US and Japan know that the population of Pakistan (146 m, growth rate 2%) represents a very significant export market for their industry. compared to the income this can potentially generate, a few billions now are just pocket change, a minor setback.
this is certainly not the only reason Pakistan is given more leeway now, as its location is key to any successful administration of Afghanistan. plus there is the risk of another war with fellow nuclear club member India over Kashmir. plus the jihadi Taliban-friendly organizations having retreated to the Afghani border could be staging a guerilla campaign under the leadership of mulla Omar.
meanwhile, the pressure on Iran and North Korea continues, with focus on stopping their nuclear proliferation. surprisingly, the EU joined the US in their cease and desist demand for North Korea's nuclear program. the country having one of the world's largest troop numbers in a standing, conventional army, it's easy to imagine how powerful Kim&Co. would feel once they'd have the Bomb. and then anything could happen.
the bad-mouthing of Syria seems to be over for now, although rumors abound that Saddam&Sons have fled there with many members of the administration. all the same,
I HEREBY PREDICT that within a year we will see another attempt at launching a war.
against one of the states mentioned above, in all probability. the continued PR campaigns and verbal attacks suggest that Pentagon are already drawing up new battle charts, the way they did last summer, according to Clare Short. the ease with which the EU joined US in the North Korea ban also implies that the atmosphere in the Old World is more positive towards the War on Terror now than it was this winter. Wolfowitz' new defense strategy focussing on "uncertainty and surprise" makes it all the simpler.
and by next year, people will have forgotten the allegations of false intelligence reports and lack of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. and most importantly: Bush needs a new war to win the election next year, otherwise too much public attention to his domestic politics will become his doom, regardless of his multi-million head start on the Democrat candidate in campaign fundraising.
I think it runs in the family.
